technologyai
Military action against Iran ends by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (30)
April 17active
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
$28.6M vol · $8.7M liq
April 30resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
$711K vol · $0 liq
April 29resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?
$312K vol · $0 liq
April 9resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?
$237K vol · $0 liq
April 22resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?
$146K vol · $0 liq
April 28resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?
$139K vol · $0 liq
April 18resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?
$134K vol · $0 liq
April 14resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?
$127K vol · $0 liq
April 16resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?
$117K vol · $0 liq
April 25resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?
$105K vol · $0 liq
April 15resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?
$101K vol · $0 liq
April 23resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 23, 2026?
$99K vol · $0 liq
April 27resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?
$98K vol · $0 liq
April 26resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?
$98K vol · $0 liq
April 13resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?
$93K vol · $0 liq
April 24resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 24, 2026?
$85K vol · $0 liq
April 12resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026?
$82K vol · $0 liq
April 21resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?
$81K vol · $0 liq
April 20resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?
$78K vol · $0 liq
April 19resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?
$64K vol · $0 liq
April 11resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
$33K vol · $0 liq
April 10resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026?
$16K vol · $0 liq
April 6resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 6, 2026?
$14K vol · $0 liq
April 8resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 8, 2026?
$14K vol · $0 liq
April 2resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 2, 2026?
$11K vol · $0 liq
April 1resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026?
$10K vol · $0 liq
April 3resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 3, 2026?
$8K vol · $0 liq
April 4resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 4, 2026?
$5K vol · $0 liq
April 5resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 5, 2026?
$4K vol · $0 liq
April 7resolved
Military action against Iran ends by April 7, 2026?
$4K vol · $0 liq
Open in Terminal →